Beyond the Protests: Sri Lanka’s Aragalaya Movement and the Uncertain Future

For a time, it appeared that Sri Lanka could ride the wave of transformative political change brought about by the 2022 Aragalaya. Taking its name from the Sinhala word for “struggle,” the movement emerged in March 2022, when thousands of people took to the streets over long power cuts; fuel, food, and medicine shortages; and rising prices. For the first time in the country’s history, Sri Lankans from diverse ethnicities, religions, generations, and social classes came together to collectively protest the Gotabaya Rajapaksa-led government, and to demand political change and accountability for economic crimes.

The predominantly nonviolent protests notched a significant achievement: the removal of the long-established Rajapaksa family from power. Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa—Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s brother—stepped down in May 2022, followed by Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s resignation as president that July.

However, in the months since, very little has changed for the island nation. Sri Lanka continues to grapple with serious economic and political challenges. Previously viewed as a semiprosperous nation in South Asia, even reaching upper-middle-income status in 2018 as per the World Bank classification of countries, Sri Lanka now faces the daunting task of restructuring its debt and addressing critical national issues such as food security and financial stability for average families. There has been little progress toward addressing concerns related to democratic resilience and rebuilding trust between government leaders and Sri Lankan citizens.

More than a year after the protests, where does the country stand? Below are four challenges faced by Sri Lankan society in the post-Aragalaya environment.

Delayed elections and erosion of democratic processes

Although the Aragalaya demanded “system-wide changes” following the departure of the Rajapaksas, none have taken place since. This year’s local government elections were postponed indefinitely, against the ruling of the Electoral Commission of Sri Lanka (ECSL), by President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who said it was too risky to conduct polling during an economic crisis. Wickremesinghe, whom some observers suggested sought to call off the elections to prevent an embarrassing ruling-party loss, further cited the economic crisis in deliberately withholding funds approved by the parliament for staging the polls. Wickremesinghe has also deployed security forces and utilized repressive laws such as the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) to violently break up demonstrations at which participants called for elections, and to arrest protest leaders.

Currently, no elections are scheduled until the presidential poll in the latter half of 2024. By leaving citizens without an immediate avenue to express their preferences via elections, and facing increasing risks associated with protests, Sri Lanka’s embattled leaders are both shielding themselves from public scrutiny and sending the message that debt restructuring and the economy take priority over democratic processes.

Restrictive new laws in development

The government is currently preparing laws that would give authorities greater power to repress free expression, online and off. A proposed Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA) to replace the PTA would empower authorities to target a wider range of actors for terrorism, including trade unions, and create a set of new speech-related offenses. The government is also in the process of voting on a new Online Safety Bill that would allow for monitoring of social media activities, and which contains broadly defined offenses criminalizing the publication of anything deemed a “false statement.” It further would criminalize the use of online accounts for “prohibited” purposes, and could potentially be used to prosecute protest organizers, among others. Both bills would severely restrict civic space in Sri Lanka, making it even more difficult to continue Aragalaya efforts.

Mischaracterization of the crisis as solely economic

One of the primary challenges to Sri Lankan civil society lies in the way the crisis has been framed, particularly by the Wickremesinghe-led government, as solely an economic crisis, rather than one in which democratic processes have been imperiled. This perspective persists despite the removal of the Rajapaksas from government. Key political demands, such as amending the constitution to limit executive presidential powers and intensifying anticorruption efforts, have not been adequately addressed by the Wickremesinghe administration. The government’s prioritization of economic recovery over fostering democratic resilience has established a troubling antidemocratic precedent, raising serious concerns about authorities’ commitment to democratic rights and freedoms.

Brain drain

After the peak of the Aragalaya and amid a deteriorating economy, Sri Lanka has experienced widespread “brain drain,” with the exodus of professionals from all sectors. This mass exodus could potentially affect the quality of future political leadership, scholarship, media, and social responsibility in general in Sri Lanka. Lack of skilled leadership may also have financial implications for the country: the IMF debt restructuring program has been put on hold on grounds of underperformance in meeting promised economic and transparency indicators.

Aragalaya’s legacy

According to a survey conducted in August 2023 by local think tank Verité Research, 60 percent of respondents did not feel that the Aragalaya movement resulted in the aspirations of the people being fulfilled. Moreover, civil society faces increasing challenges as the Wickremesinghe administration works to close avenues for citizens to hold their leaders accountable, and cracks down on dissent.

In reflecting on the Aragalaya’s legacy, it is essential to recognize the lessons the movement imparts about the complexities of grassroots activism and the necessity for sustained efforts to ensure meaningful change. The challenges faced by civil society in the movement’s wake underscore the importance of alertness, resilience, and adaptability in the face of shifting political landscapes. The fight for accountable governance and citizen empowerment demands ongoing dedication and steadfast citizen mobilization—the heart of the Aragalaya.